Ost L G, Csatlos P
Department of Psychology, Stockholm University, Sweden.
Behav Res Ther. 2000 Nov;38(11):1107-16. doi: 10.1016/s0005-7967(99)00151-5.
Forty-nine DSM-IV diagnosed claustrophobics and 49 sex- and age-matched community controls, without any current or past psychiatric disorder, were asked to estimate the probability that three types if events would occur if they were in the described situations. The events were claustrophobic, generally negative, and positive in nature. The results showed that claustrophobics significantly overestimated the probability of events they specifically feared, i.e. the claustrophobic events, while there was no difference between the groups regarding generally negative events and positive events. This finding remained when the higher scores for claustrophobics on the Claustrophobia scale and the Anxiety Sensitivity Index were covaried out. The conclusion that can be drawn is that claustrophobics' probability ratings are characterized by distortions that are specifically connected to anxiety-arousing events and not negative events in general. The hypothesis is proposed that this may be explained by an exaggerated use of simplified rules-of-thumb for probability estimations that build on availability in memory, simulation, and representativity.
四十九名被诊断为患有幽闭恐惧症的患者以及四十九名在性别和年龄上与之匹配的社区对照者（目前或过去均无任何精神疾病）被要求估计，如果他们处于所描述的情境中，三种类型的事件发生的概率。这些事件在性质上分别为幽闭恐惧相关、一般消极和积极的。结果显示，幽闭恐惧症患者显著高估了他们特别恐惧的事件，即幽闭恐惧相关事件的发生概率，而在一般消极事件和积极事件方面，两组之间没有差异。当将幽闭恐惧症患者在幽闭恐惧症量表和焦虑敏感性指数上的较高分数进行协变量调整后，这一发现仍然成立。可以得出的结论是，幽闭恐惧症患者的概率评级具有与引发焦虑的事件而非一般消极事件特别相关的扭曲特征。提出的假设是，这可能是由于在基于记忆中的可得性、模拟和代表性进行概率估计时，过度使用了简化的经验法则所致。
