Ghani A C, Garnett G P
Wellcome Trust Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
Sex Transm Dis. 2000 Nov;27(10):579-87. doi: 10.1097/00007435-200011000-00006.
A person's risk for acquiring infection and their role in continued transmission has traditionally been assessed on the basis of individual characteristics. Recently, network studies have attempted to relate individual risks to position in the wider network.
To assess the importance of local and global network structures in assessing the risk of acquiring and transmitting infection.
An individual-based simulation model was used to construct a variety of potential network structures and track the transmission of infection over time. Logistic and Poisson regression were used to identify which measures of network position influence a person's risk for acquiring and transmitting infection.
Measures of local centrality were more important to risk of acquisition, whereas global centrality mattered more to transmission. Continuous snowball sampling, rather than a fixed number of waves, better estimates a person's risks.
There is an asymmetry regarding the risk of acquiring and transmitting infection.
传统上,人们获取感染的风险及其在持续传播中的作用是根据个体特征来评估的。最近,网络研究试图将个体风险与更广泛网络中的位置联系起来。
评估局部和全局网络结构在评估获取和传播感染风险中的重要性。
使用基于个体的模拟模型构建各种潜在的网络结构,并随时间跟踪感染的传播。使用逻辑回归和泊松回归来确定哪些网络位置指标会影响一个人获取和传播感染的风险。
局部中心性指标对获取风险更为重要,而全局中心性对传播更为重要。连续雪球抽样,而不是固定数量的轮次,能更好地估计一个人的风险。
在获取和传播感染的风险方面存在不对称性。