Ferguson N M, Garnett G P
Department of Genetics, University of Nottingham, United Kingdom.
Sex Transm Dis. 2000 Nov;27(10):600-9. doi: 10.1097/00007435-200011000-00008.
Mathematical models of sexually transmitted disease transmission have proven powerful tools for interpreting observed epidemiologic pattern. However, the most commonly used formulation of such models largely fail to capture the effect of partnership concurrency and contact network structure on transmission.
The development of a compartmental model of partnership formation and dissolution that includes approximations for the influence of the sexual-partner network.
Theoretical analysis of ordinary differential equation models for sexually transmitted disease transmission within sex-partner networks.
The approach developed advances earlier pair models, allows for the influence of concurrent sexual partnerships, and illustrates the importance of concurrency to the persistence of diseases with relatively short durations of infectiousness. The authors also illustrate that heterogeneity in risk is possible even in model populations in which all individuals follow the same behavioral rules.
Deterministic extended pair models offer a powerful approach to modelling sexually transmitted disease transmission that usefully complement computationally intensive microsimulation models.
性传播疾病传播的数学模型已被证明是解释观察到的流行病学模式的有力工具。然而，此类模型最常用的公式在很大程度上未能捕捉到性伴侣并发和接触网络结构对传播的影响。
开发一种伴侣形成和解散的 compartmental 模型，其中包括对性伴侣网络影响的近似值。
对性伴侣网络中性传播疾病传播的常微分方程模型进行理论分析。
所开发的方法改进了早期的配对模型，考虑了同时性性伴侣关系的影响，并说明了同时性对于传染性持续时间相对较短的疾病持续存在的重要性。作者还表明，即使在所有个体都遵循相同行为规则的模型人群中，风险异质性也是可能的。
确定性扩展配对模型为性传播疾病传播建模提供了一种强大的方法，可有效地补充计算密集型微观模拟模型。
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