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重大人口辩论:它们与21世纪有多大关联?

The great population debates: how relevant are they for the 21st century?

作者信息

Sinding S W

机构信息

Center for Population and Family Health, Joseph L. Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.

出版信息

Am J Public Health. 2000 Dec;90(12):1841-5. doi: 10.2105/ajph.90.12.1841.

Abstract

Two great debates--whether population growth is a problem and how to address the problem if one exists--dominated population policy discussions in the 20th century. The debate about whether pitted those who saw rapid population growth as a problem against those who believed the cries of alarm were false. The debate about how was conducted between advocates of the direct delivery of contraceptives through family planning programs and those who counseled a broader, more holistic approach. The debate about how was largely resolved by the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development at Cairo; the debate about whether remains unresolved. Environmentalists, ecologists, and physical scientists generally support the view that rapid population growth is harmful, but economists remain largely unconvinced. Contemporary declines in fertility and the end of the population crisis mentality of the mid- to late 20th century could, ironically, diminish public support for precisely those programs that have been responsible for the rapid fertility decline of the past 3 decades--programs that will be required to complete the "demographic transition" in those parts of the developing world where fertility remains very high.

摘要

两场重大辩论——人口增长是否构成问题以及如果存在问题该如何解决——主导了20世纪的人口政策讨论。关于“是否”的辩论使那些认为人口快速增长是个问题的人与那些认为警报声是假的人针锋相对。关于“如何”的辩论是在主张通过计划生育项目直接提供避孕药具的人与那些主张采取更广泛、更全面方法的人之间展开的。关于“如何”的辩论在很大程度上于1994年在开罗举行的国际人口与发展会议上得到了解决;而关于“是否”的辩论仍未解决。环境学家、生态学家和自然科学家普遍支持人口快速增长有害的观点,但经济学家大多仍不相信。具有讽刺意味的是,当代生育率的下降以及20世纪中后期人口危机心态的终结,可能会减少公众对那些在过去三十年中导致生育率迅速下降的项目的支持——而在发展中世界那些生育率仍然很高的地区,完成“人口转变”仍需要这些项目。

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本文引用的文献

1
Population policy options in the developing world.发展中世界的人口政策选择。
Science. 1994 Feb 11;263(5148):771-6. doi: 10.1126/science.8303293.
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The fertility decline in developing countries.
Sci Am. 1993 Dec;269(6):60-7. doi: 10.1038/scientificamerican1293-60.
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