Little M P, Deltour I, Richardson S
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK.
Radiat Environ Biophys. 2000 Dec;39(4):241-52. doi: 10.1007/s004110000070.
Generalized relative risk models, with adjustments to the relative risk for time after exposure and age at exposure and incorporating a linear-quadratic dose response, were fitted to the latest (Life Span Study Report 12) Japanese atomic bomb survivor cancer mortality data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, taking account of random errors in the DS86 dose estimates. The resulting uncertainty distributions in the relative risk model parameters were used to derive uncertainties in population cancer risks for a current UK population. Following an assumed administered dose of 1 Sv, leukaemia mortality risks were estimated to be 1.93x10(-2) Sv(-1) (95% CI 1.14, 3.38), or 0.44 years of life lost Sv(-1) (95% CI 0.22, 0.94). Following an assumed administered dose of 1 Sv, solid cancer mortality risks were calculated to be 10.36x10(-2) Sv(-1) (95% CI 8.41, 12.42), or 1.38 years of life lost Sv(-1) (95% CI 1.11, 1.68). In general, solid cancer risks were very similar to those predicted by classical likelihood-based methods; however, leukaemia risks were somewhat higher, by 10-35%, than those predicted by classical likelihood-based methods. This is so in both cases, irrespective of whether or not adjustments are made in these likelihood-based fits for the effects of measurement errors, and the discrepancy for leukaemia tends to be greater at higher doses. Overall, cancer risks predicted by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are similar to those derived by classical likelihood-based methods and which form the basis of established estimates of radiation-induced cancer risk.
采用贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法，对最新的（《寿命研究报告12》）日本原子弹爆炸幸存者癌症死亡率数据拟合广义相对风险模型，该模型对暴露后时间和暴露时年龄的相对风险进行了调整，并纳入了线性二次剂量反应，同时考虑了DS86剂量估计中的随机误差。相对风险模型参数的不确定性分布用于推导当前英国人群的群体癌症风险不确定性。假设给予1 Sv的剂量后，白血病死亡率风险估计为1.93×10⁻² Sv⁻¹（95%可信区间为1.14, 3.38），或每Sv损失0.44年寿命（95%可信区间为0.22, 0.94）。假设给予1 Sv的剂量后，实体癌死亡率风险计算为10.36×10⁻² Sv⁻¹（95%可信区间为8.41, 12.42），或每Sv损失1.38年寿命（95%可信区间为1.11, 1.68）。总体而言，实体癌风险与基于经典似然法预测的风险非常相似；然而，白血病风险比基于经典似然法预测的风险略高，高出10% - 35%。在两种情况下都是如此，无论在这些基于似然的拟合中是否对测量误差的影响进行了调整，并且白血病的差异在较高剂量时往往更大。总体而言，贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法预测的癌症风险与基于经典似然法得出的风险相似，而经典似然法是既定辐射诱发癌症风险估计的基础。
