Heit E
Department of Psychology, University of Warwick, Coventry, England.
Psychon Bull Rev. 2000 Dec;7(4):569-92. doi: 10.3758/bf03212996.
This paper reviews the main psychological phenomena of inductive reasoning, covering 25 years of experimental and model-based research, in particular addressing four questions. First, what makes a case or event generalizable to other cases? Second, what makes a set of cases generalizable? Third, what makes a property or predicate projectable? Fourth, how do psychological models of induction address these results? The key results in inductive reasoning are outlined, and several recent models, including a new Bayesian account, are evaluated with respect to these results. In addition, future directions for experimental and model-based work are proposed.
本文回顾了归纳推理的主要心理现象，涵盖了25年的实验研究和基于模型的研究，尤其探讨了四个问题。第一，是什么使得一个案例或事件能够推广到其他案例？第二，是什么使得一组案例能够推广？第三，是什么使得一种属性或谓词具有可投射性？第四，归纳推理的心理模型如何解释这些结果？文中概述了归纳推理的关键结果，并根据这些结果对包括一种新的贝叶斯理论在内的几种近期模型进行了评估。此外，还提出了实验研究和基于模型的研究的未来方向。
