Doblhammer G, Vaupel J W
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberanerstrasse 114, 18057 Rostock, Germany.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2001 Feb 27;98(5):2934-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.041431898. Epub 2001 Feb 20.
Month of birth influences adult life expectancy at ages 50+. Why? In two countries of the Northern Hemisphere-Austria and Denmark-people born in autumn (October-December) live longer than those born in spring (April-June). Data for Australia show that, in the Southern Hemisphere, the pattern is shifted by half a year. The lifespan pattern of British immigrants to Australia is similar to that of Austrians and Danes and significantly different from that of Australians. These findings are based on population data with more than a million observations and little or no selectivity. The differences in lifespan are independent of the seasonal distribution of deaths and the social differences in the seasonal distribution of births. In the Northern Hemisphere, the excess mortality in the first year of life of infants born in spring does not support the explanation of selective infant survival. Instead, remaining life expectancy at age 50 appears to depend on factors that arise in utero or early in infancy and that increase susceptibility to diseases later in life. This result is consistent with the finding that, at the turn of the last century, infants born in autumn had higher birth weights than those born in other seasons. Furthermore, differences in adult lifespan by month of birth decrease over time and are significantly smaller in more recent cohorts, which benefited from substantial improvements in maternal and infant health.
出生月份影响50岁以上成年人的预期寿命。为什么?在北半球的两个国家——奥地利和丹麦,秋季(10月至12月)出生的人比春季(4月至6月)出生的人寿命更长。澳大利亚的数据显示,在南半球,这种模式会偏移半年。移民到澳大利亚的英国人的寿命模式与奥地利人和丹麦人相似,与澳大利亚人有显著差异。这些发现基于超过一百万条观测数据且几乎没有选择性的人口数据。寿命差异与死亡的季节性分布以及出生季节性分布中的社会差异无关。在北半球,春季出生婴儿在生命第一年的额外死亡率并不支持选择性婴儿存活的解释。相反,50岁时的剩余预期寿命似乎取决于子宫内或婴儿早期出现的因素,这些因素会增加日后对疾病的易感性。这一结果与上世纪之交的研究发现一致,即秋季出生的婴儿出生体重高于其他季节出生的婴儿。此外,按出生月份划分的成年人寿命差异会随着时间推移而减小,在最近几代人中差异显著更小,这得益于母婴健康的大幅改善。