Vaupel J W, Carey J R, Christensen K, Johnson T E, Yashin A I, Holm N V, Iachine I A, Kannisto V, Khazaeli A A, Liedo P, Longo V D, Zeng Y, Manton K G, Curtsinger J W
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
Science. 1998 May 8;280(5365):855-60. doi: 10.1126/science.280.5365.855.
Old-age survival has increased substantially since 1950. Death rates decelerate with age for insects, worms, and yeast, as well as humans. This evidence of extended postreproductive survival is puzzling. Three biodemographic insights--concerning the correlation of death rates across age, individual differences in survival chances, and induced alterations in age patterns of fertility and mortality--offer clues and suggest research on the failure of complicated systems, on new demographic equations for evolutionary theory, and on fertility-longevity interactions. Nongenetic changes account for increases in human life-spans to date. Explication of these causes and the genetic license for extended survival, as well as discovery of genes and other survival attributes affecting longevity, will lead to even longer lives.
自1950年以来,老年存活率大幅提高。昆虫、蠕虫、酵母以及人类的死亡率都随年龄增长而减缓。这种繁殖后期存活率延长的证据令人困惑。关于死亡率随年龄的相关性、生存机会的个体差异以及生育和死亡率年龄模式的诱导性变化这三个生物人口学见解提供了线索,并建议对复杂系统的故障、进化理论的新人口方程以及生育与长寿的相互作用进行研究。迄今为止,非遗传变化导致了人类寿命的延长。对这些原因以及延长生存的遗传许可进行阐释,以及发现影响长寿的基因和其他生存特性,将带来更长的寿命。