Meltzer M I, Shapiro C N, Mast E E, Arcari C
Office of the Director, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
Vaccine. 2001 Feb 28;19(15-16):2138-45. doi: 10.1016/s0264-410x(00)00396-0.
The economics of vaccinating restaurant workers against hepatitis A were studied using Monte Carlo simulation models, one with a restaurant-owner perspective, and one with a societal perspective. The restaurant model allowed for a different size, number of employees and employee turnover rate. Benefits were the avoidance of loss of business (including the possibility of bankruptcy) after publicity linking the restaurant to an outbreak associated with a case of hepatitis A in a food handler. Additional benefits in the societal model included reductions in costs of food handler-associated cases of hepatitis A. The outcome used was Net Present Value (NPV), allowing comparison between models. Regardless of the cost of vaccination ($50-140/employee), for a restauranteur to ensure that all employees were vaccinated at all times substantial costs were involved (i.e. negative NPV). Even a 75% probability of bankruptcy still resulted in negative NPVs at the 95th percentiles. For society, vaccination was only cost-saving (i.e. positive NPV) if done only during epidemics and if it cost < $20/employee. Vaccinating restaurant employees is unlikely to be economical from either the restaurant owner or the societal perspective, even during hepatitis A epidemics.
利用蒙特卡罗模拟模型研究了为餐厅员工接种甲型肝炎疫苗的经济学问题,一个模型从餐厅老板的角度出发,另一个模型从社会的角度出发。餐厅模型考虑了不同的规模、员工数量和员工周转率。收益包括在将餐厅与食品处理人员中甲型肝炎病例爆发相关的宣传后避免业务损失(包括破产的可能性)。社会模型中的额外收益包括降低与食品处理人员相关的甲型肝炎病例的成本。所使用的结果是净现值(NPV),以便在模型之间进行比较。无论疫苗接种成本如何(每位员工50 - 140美元),对于餐厅老板来说,要确保所有员工始终接种疫苗都涉及大量成本(即负净现值)。即使破产概率为75%,在第95百分位数时净现值仍为负。对于社会而言,只有在疫情期间进行接种且成本低于每位员工20美元时,疫苗接种才具有成本效益(即正净现值)。从餐厅老板或社会的角度来看,即使在甲型肝炎疫情期间,为餐厅员工接种疫苗也不太可能具有经济效益。