Lippmann M, Ito K, Nádas A, Burnett R T
New York University School of Medicine, Department of Environmental Medicine, 57 Old Forgo Road, Tuxedo, NY 10987, USA.
Res Rep Health Eff Inst. 2000 Aug(95):5-72, discussion 73-82.
Indices of atmospheric particulate matter (PM) have been reported to be associated with daily mortality and morbidity in a large number of recent time-series studies. However, the question remains as to which components of PM are responsible for the reported associations. Multiple PM components rarely are measured simultaneously. To investigate PM effects on mortality and morbidity, we used the multiple PM components measured in Windsor, Ontario, at a site only a few miles from downtown Detroit, Michigan. This study focused primarily on two study periods in which multiple PM components were measured in Windsor: 1985 to 1990, when levels of total suspended particles (TSP), sulfate from TSP (TSP-SO4(2-)), PM less than 10 microns in diameter (PM10), and nonthoracic TSP (TSP-PM10) were measured throughout the year; and 1992 to 1994, when data on PM10, PM2.5 (PM less than 2.5 microns in diameter), PM10-2.5 (PM10 minus PM2.5), particle acidity (H+), and artifact-free sulfates (SO4(2-)) were available for mostly summer months. Mortality data were analyzed for the 1985 to 1990 study period, and data on both mortality and hospital admissions of elderly patients were analyzed for the 1992 through 1994 period. Poisson regressions were used to estimate the effects of these PM components and gaseous criteria pollutants on mortality (nonaccidental, circulatory, respiratory, and nonaccidental without circulatory and respiratory) and on hospital admissions of elderly patients (for pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD], ischemic heart disease, dysrhythmias, heart failure, and stroke), adjusting for temperature and humidity, trends and seasonal cycles, and day of the week. Both PM10 and TSP were associated significantly with respiratory mortality for the 1985 to 1990 period, with similar relative risk (RR) estimates for PM10 (RR = 1.123; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0361-1.218) and TSP (RR = 1.109; 95% CI 1.028-1.197), per 5th to 95th percentile increment. The effect-size estimates for TSP-SO4(2-) and TSP-PM10 were smaller and less significant. In two-pollutant models, simultaneous inclusion of gaseous pollutants with PM10 or TSP reduced PM coefficients by 0 to 34%. The effect-size estimates for total mortality, circulatory mortality, and total minus circulatory and respiratory mortality were less than those for respiratory mortality. Ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) also were associated significantly with total and circulatory mortality, but a simultaneous consideration of these pollutants with PM10 reduced PM10 coefficients only slightly, or even increased them. In these results, pollution coefficients often were positive at multiple lag days (0-day through 3-day lags were examined), but for PM indices, 1-day lag coefficients were most significant. However, when all combinations of multiple-day average exposures were examined, for cases in which multiple lag days were positive, the choice of single-day or multiple-day average exposure did not appreciably change the estimated effect sizes. An examination of temporal correlation showed that the order of spatial uniformity as expressed by the median site-to-site correlation was O3 (0.83), PM10 (0.78), TSP (0.71), NO2 (0.70), carbon monoxide (CO) (0.50), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) (0.49), which suggests less exposure error for O3 and PM10 than for the other measured pollutants. Thus, these results suggest that spatially homogeneous pollution indices show higher associations with measured health outcomes.
在最近大量的时间序列研究中,大气颗粒物(PM)指标已被报告与每日死亡率和发病率相关。然而,问题仍然存在,即PM的哪些成分导致了所报告的关联。很少同时测量多种PM成分。为了研究PM对死亡率和发病率的影响,我们使用了在安大略省温莎市测量的多种PM成分,该市距离密歇根州底特律市中心仅几英里。本研究主要集中在温莎市测量多种PM成分的两个研究时期:1985年至1990年,全年测量总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)、TSP中的硫酸盐(TSP-SO4(2-))、直径小于10微米的PM(PM10)和非胸腔TSP(TSP-PM10)的水平;以及1992年至1994年,主要在夏季获得了PM10、PM2.5(直径小于2.5微米的PM)、PM10-2.5(PM10减去PM2.5)、颗粒酸度(H+)和无假象硫酸盐(SO4(2-))的数据。对1985年至1990年研究期间的死亡率数据进行了分析,并对1992年至1994年期间老年患者的死亡率和住院数据进行了分析。使用泊松回归估计这些PM成分和气态标准污染物对死亡率(非意外、循环系统、呼吸系统以及无循环系统和呼吸系统疾病的非意外)以及老年患者住院(肺炎、慢性阻塞性肺疾病[COPD]、缺血性心脏病、心律失常、心力衰竭和中风)的影响,并对温度和湿度、趋势和季节周期以及星期几进行了调整。在1985年至1990年期间,PM10和TSP均与呼吸系统死亡率显著相关,PM10(RR = 1.123;95%置信区间[CI] 1.0361-1.218)和TSP(RR = 1.109;95% CI 1.028-1.197)的相对风险(RR)估计值相似,每增加第5至95百分位数。TSP-SO4(2-)和TSP-PM10的效应量估计值较小且不太显著。在双污染物模型中,将气态污染物与PM10或TSP同时纳入会使PM系数降低0%至34%。总死亡率、循环系统死亡率以及总死亡率减去循环系统和呼吸系统死亡率的效应量估计值小于呼吸系统死亡率的效应量估计值。臭氧(O3)和二氧化氮(NO2)也与总死亡率和循环系统死亡率显著相关,但将这些污染物与PM10同时考虑只会使PM10系数略有降低,甚至会使其增加。在这些结果中,污染系数在多个滞后天数(检查了0天至3天的滞后)通常为正,但对于PM指数,1天滞后系数最为显著。然而,当检查多天平均暴露的所有组合时,对于多个滞后天数为正的情况,单日或多天平均暴露的选择并未明显改变估计的效应量。对时间相关性的检查表明,以中位数站点间相关性表示的空间均匀性顺序为O3(0.83)、PM10(0.78)、TSP(0.71)、NO2(0.70)、一氧化碳(CO)(0.50)和二氧化硫(SO2)(0.49),这表明O3和PM10的暴露误差比其他测量污染物小。因此,这些结果表明空间均匀的污染指数与测量的健康结果显示出更高的关联。