Singh R B, Hales S, de Wet N, Raj R, Hearnden M, Weinstein P
Ecology and Health Research Centre, Wellington School of Medicine, Wellington, New Zealand.
Environ Health Perspect. 2001 Feb;109(2):155-9. doi: 10.1289/ehp.01109155.
Freshwater resources are a high-priority issue in the Pacific region. Water shortage is a serious problem in many small island states, and many depend heavily on rainwater as the source of their water. Lack of safe water supplies is an important factor in diarrheal illness. There have been no previous studies looking specifically at the relationship between climate variability and diarrhea in the Pacific region. We carried out two related studies to explore the potential relationship between climate variability and the incidence of diarrhea in the Pacific Islands. In the first study, we examined the average annual rates of diarrhea in adults, as well as temperature and water availability from 1986 to 1994 for 18 Pacific Island countries. There was a positive association between annual average temperature and the rate of diarrhea reports, and a negative association between water availability and diarrhea rates. In the second study, we examined diarrhea notifications in Fiji in relation to estimates of temperature and rainfall, using Poisson regression analysis of monthly data for 1978-1998. There were positive associations between diarrhea reports and temperature and between diarrhea reports and extremes of rainfall. These results are consistent with previous research and suggest that global climate change is likely to exacerbate diarrheal illness in many Pacific Island countries.
淡水资源是太平洋地区的一个高度优先问题。水资源短缺在许多小岛屿国家是一个严重问题，许多国家严重依赖雨水作为水源。缺乏安全的供水是腹泻疾病的一个重要因素。此前尚无专门研究太平洋地区气候变化与腹泻之间关系的研究。我们开展了两项相关研究，以探讨太平洋岛屿气候变化与腹泻发病率之间的潜在关系。在第一项研究中，我们调查了1986年至1994年18个太平洋岛屿国家成年人的年平均腹泻率以及温度和水资源可得性情况。年平均温度与腹泻报告率之间呈正相关，水资源可得性与腹泻率之间呈负相关。在第二项研究中，我们利用1978 - 1998年月度数据的泊松回归分析，研究了斐济腹泻通报情况与温度和降雨量估计值之间的关系。腹泻报告与温度之间以及腹泻报告与极端降雨量之间呈正相关。这些结果与先前的研究一致，表明全球气候变化可能会加剧许多太平洋岛屿国家的腹泻疾病。
