Moreno-Civantos A, Díaz-Jiménez J, Domínguez-Berjón M F
Servicio Salud Pública Area 2, Dirección General de Salud Pública, Consejería de Sanidad, Comunidad de Madrid.
Gac Sanit. 2000 Nov-Dec;14(6):422-8. doi: 10.1016/s0213-9111(00)71908-x.
To analyse the association between the behavior of meningococcal disease and influenza, using for this purpose population statistics for Spain for the period of 1964 to 1997.
Ecological study of the incidence of meningococcal disease and influenza in Spain from 1964 to 1997, inclusive. The study used weekly statistical data for these diseases supplied by the Compulsory Disease Reporting System (Enfermedades de Declaración Obligatoria, EDO). The deterministic component of the meningococcal disease and influenza series was studied by means of spectral analysis based on the Fast Fourier Transformation, and the non-deterministic component was studied using the ARIMA model. The Box-Jenkins method was used for pre-bleaching the series, and a cross-correlation was subsequently established between the residuals in order to detect the presence of any significant correlations between the meningococcal disease and influenza series.
During the period from 1964 to 1997, the week that showed, on average, the greatest number of cases for the season was week 7 in the case of meningococcal disease and week 6 in the case of influenza. Spectral analysis of the meningococcal disease and influenza series clearly demonstrated the annual periodicity of both series, and periodicity of nearly 11 years for meningococcal disease and slightly over 10 years for influenza. When cross-correlation is established after prebleaching the series, positive correlations are obtained in the results of lags 0, 1, 2, and 3. Introducing influenza as an exogenous variable in the multivariate model of meningococcal disease corroborates these results. There was a statistically significant relationship between the two processes during the same week and with a three-week lapse.
By means of a methodology not previously applied to this subject, and by the use of prolonged time-span, country-comprehensive population statistics (which includes several epidemics waves), an association was shown to exist between meningococcal disease and influenza. This suggests the need for the surveillance of the two processes in an interrelated manner.
利用1964年至1997年西班牙的人口统计数据，分析脑膜炎球菌病与流感之间的关联。
对1964年至1997年（含）西班牙脑膜炎球菌病和流感的发病率进行生态学研究。该研究使用了强制疾病报告系统（法定传染病，EDO）提供的这些疾病的每周统计数据。通过基于快速傅里叶变换的频谱分析研究脑膜炎球菌病和流感序列的确定性成分，并使用ARIMA模型研究非确定性成分。采用Box-Jenkins方法对序列进行预白化处理，随后在残差之间建立互相关，以检测脑膜炎球菌病和流感序列之间是否存在任何显著相关性。
在1964年至1997年期间，脑膜炎球菌病季节平均病例数最多的周是第7周，流感是第6周。脑膜炎球菌病和流感序列的频谱分析清楚地表明了两个序列的年度周期性，脑膜炎球菌病的周期接近11年，流感略超过10年。对序列进行预白化处理后建立互相关时，在滞后0、1、2和3的结果中获得了正相关。在脑膜炎球菌病的多变量模型中引入流感作为外生变量证实了这些结果。在同一周以及间隔三周时，这两个过程之间存在统计学上显著的关系。
通过一种以前未应用于该主题的方法，并使用长时间跨度、全国范围的综合人口统计数据（包括几次疫情波），表明脑膜炎球菌病与流感之间存在关联。这表明需要以相互关联的方式对这两个过程进行监测。
