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使用概率模型评估农药的总体和累积风险。

Assessing aggregate and cumulative pesticide risks using a probabilistic model.

作者信息

Price P S, Young J S, Chaisson C F

机构信息

The LifeLine Group, Cape Elizabeth, ME 04107, USA.

出版信息

Ann Occup Hyg. 2001 Apr;45 Suppl 1:S131-42. doi: 10.1016/s0003-4878(00)00103-4.

Abstract

Determining aggregate and cumulative risks from exposures to pesticides presents a number of challenges. The analysis must capture the correlations in residues that occur from both additive and exclusionary processes in the use of pesticides. The analysis also requires a quantitative mechanism for evaluating risks associated with exposures to mixtures of pesticides. This paper presents an analysis of aggregate exposures and risks associated with exposures to a pesticide, Alpha, and the cumulative exposure to and risk from three pesticides, Alpha, Beta, and Gamma. The cumulative risks are evaluated by determining the systemic (absorbed) doses that result from inhalation, dermal, and oral exposures to the pesticides. A 'relative toxicity' model is used to evaluate cumulative risks. The assessment of cumulative exposure was performed using the LifeLine Version 1.0. The model simulates pesticide exposure using an individual-based approach where daily exposures are evaluated for each person, season, and location.

摘要

确定农药暴露的总体风险和累积风险存在诸多挑战。分析必须捕捉到农药使用过程中由于加和性和排他性过程而产生的残留相关性。该分析还需要一种定量机制来评估与农药混合物暴露相关的风险。本文分析了与一种农药(α)暴露相关的总体暴露和风险,以及三种农药(α、β和γ)的累积暴露和风险。通过确定吸入、皮肤和口服接触农药所产生的全身(吸收)剂量来评估累积风险。使用“相对毒性”模型来评估累积风险。累积暴露评估使用的是LifeLine版本1.0。该模型采用基于个体的方法模拟农药暴露,即针对每个人、每个季节和每个地点评估每日暴露情况。

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