Mandel David R.
University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, United Kingdom
Organ Behav Hum Decis Process. 2001 May;85(1):56-76. doi: 10.1006/obhd.2000.2932.
This article reexamines the assumptions underlying the disease problem used by Tversky and Kahneman (1981) to illustrate gain-loss formulation effects. It is argued that their reported effect may have been due to asymmetries in the ambiguity of the sure and risky prospects and to the entanglement of two distinct types of formulation manipulations: one having to do with the expected outcomes that are made explicit (positive vs negative) and the other having to do with the descriptors used to convey the relevant expected outcomes (lives saved/not saved vs lives lost/not lost). Two experiments using a formally equivalent problem in which these confounds were eliminated revealed no significant predictive effect of either descriptor or outcomes frames on choice, although a marginally significant framing effect was obtained in Experiment 1 when the signs of the two framing manipulations were congruent. Implications for prospect theory are discussed. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.
本文重新审视了特沃斯基和卡尼曼(1981)用以说明得失表述效应的疾病问题所依据的假设。有人认为,他们所报告的效应可能是由于确定前景和风险前景的模糊性不对称,以及两种不同类型表述操作的交织:一种与明确给出的预期结果(正面与负面)有关,另一种与用于传达相关预期结果的描述词有关(获救/未获救的生命与失去/未失去的生命)。两项实验使用了一个形式上等效的问题,其中消除了这些混淆因素,结果显示描述词或结果框架对选择均无显著的预测效应,不过在实验1中,当两种框架操作的符号一致时,获得了一个边缘显著的框架效应。文中讨论了对前景理论的启示。版权所有2001年学术出版社。