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框架对风险决策的影响:一项元分析。

The Influence of Framing on Risky Decisions: A Meta-analysis.

作者信息

Kühberger A

机构信息

University of Salzburg, Austria

出版信息

Organ Behav Hum Decis Process. 1998 Jul;75(1):23-55. doi: 10.1006/obhd.1998.2781.

DOI:10.1006/obhd.1998.2781
PMID:9719656
Abstract

In framing studies, logically equivalent choice situations are differently described and the resulting preferences are studied. A meta-analysis of framing effects is presented for risky choice problems which are framed either as gains or as losses. This evaluates the finding that highlighting the positive aspects of formally identical problems does lead to risk aversion and that highlighting their equivalent negative aspects does lead to risk seeking. Based on a data pool of 136 empirical papers that reported framing experiments with nearly 30,000 participants, we calculated 230 effect sizes. Results show that the overall framing effect between conditions is of small to moderate size and that profound differences exist between research designs. Potentially relevant characteristics were coded for each study. The most important characteristics were whether framing is manipulated by changing reference points or by manipulating outcome salience, and response mode (choice vs. rating/judgment). Further important characteristics were whether options differ qualitatively or quantitatively in risk, whether there is one or multiple risky events, whether framing is manipulated by gain/loss or by task-responsive wording, whether dependent variables are measured between- or within- subjects, and problem domains. Sample (students vs. target populations) and unit of analysis (individual vs. group) was not influential. It is concluded that framing is a reliable phenomenon, but that outcome salience manipulations, which constitute a considerable amount of work, have to be distinguished from reference point manipulations and that procedural features of experimental settings have a considerable effect on effect sizes in framing experiments. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.

摘要

在框架研究中,逻辑上等效的选择情境会有不同的描述方式,并对由此产生的偏好进行研究。本文针对以收益或损失框架呈现的风险选择问题,进行了框架效应的元分析。这评估了以下发现:突出形式上相同问题的积极方面确实会导致风险规避,而突出其等效的消极方面确实会导致风险寻求。基于136篇实证论文的数据库,这些论文报告了近30000名参与者的框架实验,我们计算了230个效应量。结果表明,不同条件之间的总体框架效应大小为小到中等,并且研究设计之间存在显著差异。为每项研究编码了潜在相关特征。最重要的特征是框架是通过改变参考点还是通过操纵结果显著性来操纵的,以及反应模式(选择与评分/判断)。其他重要特征包括选项在风险上是定性还是定量不同、是否存在一个或多个风险事件、框架是通过收益/损失还是通过任务响应措辞来操纵的、因变量是在受试者间还是受试者内测量的,以及问题领域。样本(学生与目标人群)和分析单位(个体与群体)没有影响。研究得出结论,框架是一种可靠的现象,但构成大量研究的结果显著性操纵必须与参考点操纵区分开来,并且实验设置的程序特征对框架实验中的效应量有相当大的影响。版权所有1998年学术出版社。

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