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人类历史上的太阳活动、公转与文化鼎盛时期。

Solar activity, revolutions and cultural prime in the history of mankind.

作者信息

Mikulecký Miroslav

机构信息

Department of Biometry and Statistics, Neuroendocrinology Letters, Stockholm-Bratislava.

出版信息

Neuro Endocrinol Lett. 2007 Dec;28(6):749-56.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Russian astronomer A.L. Tchijevsky published in the twenties of 20th century a study comparing the approximately 11-year cycling of "sunspot activity" and "historical process", analyzed globally since the 5th century B.C. to the 19th century A.D. According to him, phenomena of societal "excitation", as revolutions, occurred synchronously with the solar maxima, and, oppositely, those of peaceful activities of masses, as science and arts, with the solar minima. Recently, Slovak philosopher E. Páles describes periodic fluctuation of historical events in mutually distant geographic areas during more than three millennia. The period lengths, however, are longer, one of the most pronounced being around 500 years. THE QUESTION was therefore posed: does a similar correlation with sunspot activity, as found for 11-year cycles, exist also in the 500-year cycling?

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The historical data consisted of two time series concerning revolutions in Europe and China, and of eight time series from activities in science and arts registered from five geographic areas. For the comparison, parallel time series of sunspot (Wolf) numbers, available since IInd century B.C., were constructed. Using periodic regression function, the times of peaking were estimated for each data set.

RESULTS

In agreement with Tchijevsky's hypothesis, revolutions culminated near to solar maxima while cultural flourishing usually distinctly near to solar minima. This conclusion is based on the level of statistical significance alpha=0.05.

CONCLUSION

Solar impact on geomagnetic field could be one of elucidating mechanisms. Recently, electromagnetic influencing of brain function has been realized artificially.

摘要

背景

俄罗斯天文学家A.L. 齐热夫斯基在20世纪20年代发表了一项研究,比较了自公元前5世纪至公元19世纪全球范围内“太阳黑子活动”和“历史进程”的约11年周期。据他所说,社会“动荡”现象,如革命,与太阳活动极大期同步发生,相反,大众的和平活动,如科学和艺术,则与太阳活动极小期同步。最近,斯洛伐克哲学家E. 帕莱斯描述了三千多年来相互遥远地理区域内历史事件的周期性波动。然而,周期长度更长,最明显的之一约为500年。因此提出了一个问题:在500年的周期中,是否也存在与11年周期中发现的与太阳黑子活动类似的相关性?

材料与方法

历史数据包括两个关于欧洲和中国革命的时间序列,以及来自五个地理区域记录的科学和艺术活动的八个时间序列。为了进行比较,构建了自公元前2世纪以来可用的太阳黑子(沃尔夫)数的平行时间序列。使用周期性回归函数,估计每个数据集的峰值时间。

结果

与齐热夫斯基的假设一致,革命在太阳活动极大期附近达到顶峰,而文化繁荣通常明显在太阳活动极小期附近。这一结论基于统计学显著性水平α = 0.05。

结论

太阳对地磁场的影响可能是一种解释机制。最近,人们已经人工实现了对大脑功能的电磁影响。

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