Acuna-Soto Rodolfo, Stahle David W, Therrell Matthew D, Gomez Chavez Sergio, Cleaveland Malcolm K
Departamento de Microbiología y Parasitología, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, México City, D.F. C.P. 04510, Mexico.
Med Hypotheses. 2005;65(2):405-9. doi: 10.1016/j.mehy.2005.02.025.
The classical period in Mexico (AD 250-750) was an era of splendor. The city of Teotihuacan was one of the largest and most sophisticated human conglomerates of the pre-industrial world. The Mayan civilization in southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan peninsula reached an impressive degree of development at the same time. This time of prosperity came to an end during the Terminal Classic Period (AD 750-950) a time of massive population loss throughout Mesoamerica. A second episode of massive depopulation in the same area was experienced during the sixteenth century when, in less than one century, between 80% and 90% of the entire indigenous population was lost. The 16th century depopulation of Mexico constitutes one of the worst demographic catastrophes in human history. Although newly imported European and African diseases caused high mortality among the native population, the major 16th century population losses were caused by a series of epidemics of a hemorrhagic fever called Cocoliztli, a highly lethal disease unknown to both Aztec and European physicians during the colonial era. The cocoliztli epidemics occurred during the 16th century megadrought, when severe drought extended at times from central Mexico to the boreal forest of Canada, and from the Pacific to the Atlantic coast. The collapse of the cultures of the Classic Period seems also to have occurred during a time of severe drought. Tree ring and lake sediment records indicate that some of the most severe and prolonged droughts to impact North America-Mesoamerica in the past 1000-4000 years occurred between AD 650 and 1000, particularly during the 8th and 9th centuries, a period of time that coincides with the Terminal Classic Period. Based on the similarities of the climatic (severe drought) and demographic (massive population loss) events in Mesoamerica during the sixteenth century, we propose that drought-associated epidemics of hemorrhagic fever may have contributed to the massive population loss during the Terminal Classic Period.
墨西哥的古典时期（公元250年至750年）是一个辉煌的时代。特奥蒂瓦坎城是前工业化世界最大、最复杂的人类聚居地之一。墨西哥东南部和尤卡坦半岛的玛雅文明在同一时期达到了令人瞩目的发展程度。这种繁荣在古典晚期（公元750年至950年）结束，这一时期整个中美洲人口大量减少。16世纪，同一地区经历了第二次大规模人口减少，在不到一个世纪的时间里，整个土著人口的80%至90%消失了。16世纪墨西哥的人口减少是人类历史上最严重的人口灾难之一。尽管新传入的欧洲和非洲疾病导致当地人口死亡率很高，但16世纪的主要人口损失是由一系列名为科科利兹特里的出血热疫情造成的，这是一种在殖民时代阿兹特克和欧洲医生都不知道的高致命性疾病。科科利兹特里疫情发生在16世纪的大干旱时期，当时严重干旱有时从墨西哥中部延伸到加拿大的北方森林，从太平洋沿岸延伸到大西洋沿岸。古典时期文化的衰落似乎也发生在严重干旱时期。树木年轮和湖泊沉积物记录表明，在过去1000至4000年里，影响北美-中美洲的一些最严重、持续时间最长的干旱发生在公元650年至1000年之间，特别是在8世纪和9世纪，这一时期与古典晚期重合。基于16世纪中美洲气候（严重干旱）和人口（大量人口损失）事件的相似性，我们认为与干旱相关的出血热疫情可能导致了古典晚期的大量人口损失。
