Coulson T, Catchpole E A, Albon S D, Morgan B J, Pemberton J M, Clutton-Brock T H, Crawley M J, Grenfell B T
Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.
Science. 2001 May 25;292(5521):1528-31. doi: 10.1126/science.292.5521.1528.
Quantifying the impact of density, extrinsic climatic fluctuations, and demography on population fluctuations is a persistent challenge in ecology. We analyzed the effect of these processes on the irregular pattern of population crashes of Soay sheep on the St. Kilda archipelago, United Kingdom. Because the age and sex structure of the population fluctuates independently of population size, and because animals of different age and sex respond in different ways to density and weather, identical weather conditions can result in different dynamics in populations of equal size. In addition, the strength of density-dependent processes is a function of the distribution of weather events. Incorporating demographic heterogeneities into population models can influence dynamics and their response to climate change.
量化密度、外部气候波动和种群统计学对种群波动的影响，是生态学中一个长期存在的挑战。我们分析了这些过程对英国圣基尔达群岛索艾羊种群崩溃不规则模式的影响。由于种群的年龄和性别结构独立于种群规模而波动，并且由于不同年龄和性别的动物对密度和天气的反应不同，相同的天气条件可能导致规模相等的种群出现不同的动态变化。此外，密度依赖过程的强度是天气事件分布的函数。将种群统计学异质性纳入种群模型会影响动态变化及其对气候变化的响应。
