Johnson Johnnie E. V., Bruce Alistair C.
Center for Risk Research, University of Southampton, United Kingdom
Organ Behav Hum Decis Process. 2001 Jul;85(2):265-290. doi: 10.1006/obhd.2000.2949.
Results of previous calibration studies are used to identify features of the decision maker and the decision environment which might be expected to result in good calibration. Racetrack bettors and, in particular, the UK parimutuel betting market are identified as possessing such characteristics. In order to explore calibration in this setting, an analysis is undertaken of bets placed on 19,396 horses. A close correlation is observed between the subjective probability judgments of horses' success, implicit in the bettors' wagering activities, and the objective probability of success of the horses concerned. Explanations for the results are offered in terms of characteristics of racetrack bettors and the naturalistic setting, with particular reference to the operation of the betting market. The results contribute to an emergent school of thought which advocates naturalistic enquiry as a complement to laboratory-based experiments in further developing the understanding of decision making. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.
以往校准研究的结果用于识别决策者和决策环境的特征，这些特征可能会带来良好的校准效果。赛马投注者，尤其是英国的赛马总投注市场被认为具有这些特征。为了探究这种情况下的校准情况，对19396匹马的投注进行了分析。在投注者的投注活动中隐含的马匹获胜主观概率判断与相关马匹获胜的客观概率之间观察到密切的相关性。根据赛马投注者的特征和自然环境对结果进行了解释，特别提到了投注市场的运作。这些结果为一个新兴的思想流派做出了贡献，该流派主张将自然主义探究作为对基于实验室的实验的补充，以进一步加深对决策的理解。版权所有2001学术出版社。
