Kjaergaard J, Andersson M
Dokumentationscentret, forebyggelsesafdelingen, Kraeftens Bekaempelse, København.
Ugeskr Laeger. 2001 Jul 2;163(27):3779-83.
The aim was to analyse incidence rates and to predict the future number of cases of malignant mesothelioma in Denmark.
We analysed the 1912 cases of malignant mesothelioma reported to the Danish Cancer Register, 1943-1993, in order to describe the current incidence rates. The relative risks of synthetic birth cohorts were estimated by a Poisson regression model and used to predict the future number of cases in males.
The incidence rate increased to 1.33 per 100,000 person years in men in 1983-1987, and to 0.51 in women in 1973-1977. According to a Poisson regression model, the risk in birth cohorts in males peaked in the 1940-1944 cohort and decreased to 0.57 in the 1950-1954 cohort. The age-specific incidence rate peaked at 246 per 100,000 person years in the age group of 80-84. The future annual number of mesothelioma cases is expected to peak around 2015 with 93 cases in men born before 1955.
The fit of the model was not ideal, but with careful interpretation of the results we conclude that a further increase in the number of mesothelioma cases can be expected, and the effect of regulating the environmental exposure to asbestos cannot be expected within the next 10-15 years.
目的是分析丹麦恶性间皮瘤的发病率并预测未来病例数。
我们分析了1943年至1993年向丹麦癌症登记处报告的1912例恶性间皮瘤病例，以描述当前的发病率。通过泊松回归模型估计合成出生队列的相对风险，并用于预测男性未来的病例数。
1983年至1987年男性发病率增至每10万人年1.33例，1973年至1977年女性发病率增至每10万人年0.51例。根据泊松回归模型，男性出生队列中的风险在1940年至1944年队列中达到峰值，在1950年至1954年队列中降至0.57。年龄别发病率在80至84岁年龄组达到峰值，为每10万人年246例。预计间皮瘤病例的未来年度数量将在2015年左右达到峰值，1955年以前出生的男性中有93例。
该模型的拟合并不理想，但经过对结果的仔细解读，我们得出结论，预计间皮瘤病例数会进一步增加，并且在未来10至15年内无法预期对石棉环境暴露进行管控所产生的效果。
