Chang E C, Asakawa K, Sanna L J
Department of Psychology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48109, USA.
J Pers Soc Psychol. 2001 Sep;81(3):476-91.
The authors compared levels of optimistic and pessimistic bias in the prediction of positive and negative life events between European Americans and Japanese. Study 1 showed that European Americans compared with Japanese were more likely to predict positive events to occur to self than to others. The opposite pattern emerged in the prediction of negative events. Study 2 replicated these cultural differences. Furthermore, positive associations emerged between predictions and occurrence of life events 2 months later for both European Americans and Japanese. Across both studies, results of within-groups analyses indicated that both groups expected negative events to be more likely to occur to others than to self (optimistic bias). In addition, Japanese expected positive events to be more likely to occur to others than to self (pessimistic bias). However, European Americans failed to show the expected optimistic bias for positive events.
作者比较了欧美人和日本人在预测积极和消极生活事件时的乐观和悲观偏差水平。研究1表明，与日本人相比，欧美人更有可能预测积极事件会发生在自己而非他人身上。在预测消极事件时则出现了相反的模式。研究2重复了这些文化差异。此外，欧美人和日本人在预测与两个月后生活事件的发生之间都出现了正相关。在两项研究中，组内分析结果表明，两组都预期消极事件发生在他人身上的可能性高于自己（乐观偏差）。此外，日本人预期积极事件发生在他人身上的可能性高于自己（悲观偏差）。然而，欧美人在积极事件上并未表现出预期的乐观偏差。
