Bonten M J, Austin D J, Lipsitch M
Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases & AIDS, and Eijkman-Winkler Institute for Microbiology, Infectious Diseases and Inflammation, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Clin Infect Dis. 2001 Nov 15;33(10):1739-46. doi: 10.1086/323761. Epub 2001 Oct 10.
As microorganisms become more resistant to antimicrobial agents, effective infection control measures will become increasingly important. However, despite multiple studies on infection prevention, few data exist on the quantitative effects of the individual aspects of infection control strategies. The combination of epidemiologic surveillance, molecular genotyping, observational studies on compliance, and mathematical modeling may improve our ability to determine the quantitative effects of individual infection control measures. This may help to design more effective infection control programs. In this study, we review several of the models that have been published and speculate on the usefulness of mathematical modeling for improving the prevention of infection.
随着微生物对抗菌药物的耐药性增强，有效的感染控制措施将变得愈发重要。然而，尽管针对感染预防开展了多项研究，但关于感染控制策略各个方面的定量效果的数据却很少。流行病学监测、分子基因分型、依从性观察研究以及数学建模相结合，可能会提高我们确定个体感染控制措施定量效果的能力。这有助于设计更有效的感染控制方案。在本研究中，我们回顾了已发表的几种模型，并推测数学建模对改善感染预防的有用性。
