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[每年有15万人死于结核病的传闻]

[The legend of 150,000 deceased from tuberculosis per year].

作者信息

Mouret A

机构信息

Université René Descartes, Paris V.

出版信息

Ann Demogr Hist (Paris). 1996:61-84.

Abstract

This article analyzes the stages by which it was concluded that there were 150,000 deaths from tuberculosis in France at the end of the nineteenth century. The calculations made by Brouardel are broken down and the inappropriate nature of some of his choices is pointed out. In addition to these oddities in calculation, the contemporary social and political factors warrant our attention. The estimation can also be explained by the growing fears regarding demographic and social perils. Did not tuberculosis and the falling birth rate jeopardize all hope of taking revenge on Germany? In fact, the "enemy" had decided to undertake a vast program for the construction of sanatoriums, thus tempting the French public health authorities to use the figures to mobilize the attention of the public and politicians. In the collective imagination, tuberculosis and its 150,000 fatalities replaced the great epidemic of the nineteenth century, cholera, whose most destructive appearance in 1854 killed precisely 150,000 persons. In spite of the more probable estimation from the statistical services (fewer than 100,000 deaths), this figure of 150,000 deaths from tuberculosis was revived in the period between the World Wars and again in the last decade by certain historians, which proves that it became engraved in memory. However, from the turn of the century, and especially between 1918 and 1940, the proponents of these numbers have admitted that they used them to influence opinion. Here we have an excellent example of a dual language: depending on where he was speaking, the same scientist of political authority could simply double the estimations of mortality from tuberculosis.

摘要

本文分析了得出19世纪末法国有15万例结核病死亡这一结论的各个阶段。布劳德尔所做的计算被详细剖析,并指出了他一些选择的不合理之处。除了这些计算上的奇怪之处,当代的社会和政治因素也值得我们关注。这种估计也可以用对人口和社会危险日益增长的恐惧来解释。结核病和出生率下降难道没有危及对德国复仇的所有希望吗?事实上,“敌人”已决定实施一项庞大的疗养院建设计划,从而促使法国公共卫生当局利用这些数字来引起公众和政治家的关注。在集体想象中,结核病及其15万例死亡取代了19世纪的大流行病霍乱,霍乱在1854年最具毁灭性的爆发恰好导致15万人死亡。尽管统计部门的估计更有可能(死亡人数不到10万),但结核病15万例死亡这一数字在两次世界大战期间又被提起,在过去十年中某些历史学家也再次提及,这证明它已深深铭刻在人们的记忆中。然而,从世纪之交开始,尤其是在1918年至1940年期间,这些数字的支持者承认他们利用这些数字来影响舆论。这里有一个关于双重标准的绝佳例子:根据说话的场合,同一位政治权威科学家对结核病死亡率的估计可能会简单地翻倍。

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