Chandola T, Coleman D A, Hiorns R W
Popul Stud (Camb). 1999 Nov;53(3):317-29. doi: 10.1080/00324720308089.
Recent patterns of fertility in Europe show marked differences between countries. Recent United Kingdom and Irish fertility curves show 'distortions' in terms of a 'bulge' in early age fertility, distinct from the smoother curves of other European countries. These patterns may not be adequately described by mathematical functions used by previous studies to model fertility curves. A mixture model with two component distributions may be more appropriate. The suitability of the simple and mixture Hadwiger functions is examined in relation to the fertility curves of a number of European countries. While the simple Hadwiger model fits recent period age-specific fertility distributions for some countries, others which display a 'bulge' in early age fertility distributions for some countries, others which display a 'bulg' in early age fertility require a mixture Hadwiger model. Some of the parameters of the Hadwiger models appear to be related to familiar demographic indices. The simple and mixture Hadwiger models appear useful in describing and comparing fertility patterns across European countries.
欧洲近期的生育模式在不同国家间呈现出显著差异。英国和爱尔兰近期的生育曲线在早育方面出现了“扭曲”，呈现出“凸起”，这与其他欧洲国家更为平滑的曲线不同。先前研究用于模拟生育曲线的数学函数可能无法充分描述这些模式。具有两个成分分布的混合模型或许更为合适。本文考察了简单哈迪格函数和混合哈迪格函数与多个欧洲国家生育曲线的适配性。虽然简单哈迪格模型适合一些国家近期按年龄划分的生育分布情况，但其他一些在早育分布上呈现“凸起”的国家则需要混合哈迪格模型。哈迪格模型的一些参数似乎与常见的人口统计学指标相关。简单哈迪格模型和混合哈迪格模型在描述和比较欧洲各国的生育模式方面似乎很有用。
