Department of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain.
PLoS One. 2022 Oct 18;17(10):e0275492. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275492. eCollection 2022.
The transition from a demographic regime of high mortality and high fertility to one with low mortality and low fertility is universal and comes along with the process of socio-economic modernization. The Spanish total fertility rate has decreased to below replacement levels in the last decades. The decline has persisted since the 1960s and is diverse across the country. Based on that diversity, the use of population forecasts, not only at national but at regional levels, for planning purposes (governments and private sector) with large horizons has become a must to provide essential services. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model we constructed probabilistic fertility forecasts for Spain at the regional level. Although this approach is already issued by the United Nations little research has been done focusing on the Spanish subnational level. Our objective is to disaggregate the national projections of the total fertility rate for Spain into regional forecasts. The results of this research will show the model fitting, first to the national level and then using a multifaceted and continuous evolution of fertility over time, at the regional level, to check its convergence.
从高死亡率和高生育率的人口结构向低死亡率和低生育率的人口结构转变是普遍存在的，伴随着社会经济现代化的进程。西班牙的总和生育率在过去几十年中已经下降到低于更替水平。这种下降自 20 世纪 60 年代以来一直持续，而且在全国范围内存在多样性。基于这种多样性，为了规划目的（政府和私营部门），不仅在国家层面，而且在地区层面使用人口预测，对于提供基本服务来说已经成为必要。我们使用贝叶斯层次模型，在地区层面上为西班牙构建了概率生育率预测。尽管这种方法已经由联合国发布，但针对西班牙的次国家层面的研究很少。我们的目标是将西班牙的总和生育率的全国预测分解为地区预测。这项研究的结果将显示模型的拟合程度，首先是在全国层面，然后是在地区层面上，通过随时间推移的生育多维和连续的演变，来检查其收敛性。
