Modelling the resilience of Australian savanna systems to grazing impacts.

Savannas occur across all of northern Australia and are extensively used as rangelands. A recent surge in live cattle exports to Southeast Asia has caused excessive grazing impacts in some areas, especially near watering points. An important ecological and management question is "how resilient are savanna ecosystems to grazing disturbances?" Resilience refers to the ability of an ecosystem to remain in its current state (resist change) and return to this state (recover) if disturbed. Resilience responses can be measured using field data. These responses can then be modelled to predict the likely resistance and recovery of savannas to grazing impacts occurring under different climatic conditions. Two approaches were used to model resilience responses. First, a relatively simple mathematical model based on a sigmoid response function was used. This model proved useful for comparing the relative resilience of different savanna ecosystems, but was limited to ecosystems and conditions for which data were available. Second, a complex process model, SAVANNA, was parameterised to simulate the structure and function of Australian savannas. Simulations were run for 50 years at two levels of grazing to evaluate resistance and then for another 50 years with no grazing to evaluate recovery. These runs predicted that savanna grasslands were more resistant to grazing (changed less) than red-loam woodlands, which recovered relatively slowly from grazing impacts. The SAVANNA model also predicted that these woodlands would recover slightly slower under the climate change scenario projected for northern Australia.