Thompson K M, Wonderlich S A, Crosby R D, Ammerman F F, Mitchell J E, Brownfield D
Department of Sociology, North Dakota State University, Fargo 58105, USA.
Child Abuse Negl. 2001 Sep;25(9):1207-18. doi: 10.1016/s0145-2134(01)00271-x.
This study assembles information about the large number of maltreatment reports that are determined by social services to be unsubstantiated. Specifically, we assess whether the status of a maltreatment case (substantiated vs. unsubstantiated) has implications for recidivism. Recidivism rates for substantiated and unsubstantiated maltreated juveniles were also compared to juvenile offenders.
Juvenile court records for 15,812 juveniles were assessed over a 3 year period. The data included 2558 maltreatment cases. Fifty-four percent of these cases were unsubstantiated. Logistic regression analysis was employed to assess the probability of recidivism based on time one referral status.
Youth whose maltreatment allegations were unsubstantiated had significantly lower odds of recidivating than abused youth. Having a case recorded as unsubstantiated lowered a youth's odds of subsequent offending by 55% relative to being abused. The probability of recidivating was highest for juvenile offenders, followed in order by maltreated youth and youth whose reports were unsubstantiated.
This is one of the first studies to examine the court histories of substantiated and unsubstantiated maltreatment cases. If the subsequent outcomes following maltreatment investigations are used as an indicator of seriousness, our results suggest that assessment caseworkers are successfully sorting out the serious from the less serious cases.
本研究收集了大量被社会服务机构认定为无法证实的虐待报告信息。具体而言，我们评估虐待案件的状态（证实与未证实）是否对再犯有影响。还将已证实和未证实的受虐青少年的再犯率与少年罪犯的再犯率进行了比较。
在三年时间里对15812名青少年的少年法庭记录进行了评估。数据包括2558起虐待案件。其中54%的案件无法证实。采用逻辑回归分析根据首次转介状态评估再犯的可能性。
虐待指控未得到证实的青少年再犯的几率明显低于受虐青少年。案件被记录为无法证实使青少年随后犯罪的几率相对于受虐青少年降低了55%。少年罪犯再犯的可能性最高，其次是受虐青少年，然后是报告未得到证实的青少年。
这是首批研究已证实和未证实的虐待案件法庭历史的研究之一。如果将虐待调查后的后续结果用作严重性的指标，我们的结果表明评估个案工作者正在成功地区分严重案件和不太严重的案件。
