Way I, Chung S, Jonson-Reid M, Drake B
School of Social Work, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo 49008-5354, USA.
Child Abuse Negl. 2001 Aug;25(8):1093-108. doi: 10.1016/s0145-2134(01)00258-7.
This study compared recidivism rates for alleged maltreatment perpetrators whose initial report was substantiated and those whose initial report was not substantiated, to determine whether they returned to the child welfare system at differing rates.
Statewide administrative child welfare services data over a period of 4 1/2 years was analyzed. The sample included 31,531 perpetrators of intrafamilial maltreatment. Separate analyses were conducted for each type of maltreatment (sexual abuse, physical abuse, and neglect).
Bivariate relationships (substantiation status and recidivism) were analyzed using survival curves, and the study found that recidivism patterns differed by type of maltreatment and by substantiation status at the index event. Multivariate analyses using Cox Proportional Hazards models found that bivariate relationships held true even when controlling for neighborhood mean income, ethnicity, and gender.
The study's finding that perpetrators whose index event was not substantiated return to the child welfare system at a high rate suggests the need to learn how to discriminate those unsubstantiated alleged perpetrators who are most at risk for recidivism. The finding of frequent cross-type recidivism indicates that intervention should focus on common themes across maltreatment types.
本研究比较了初次报告被证实的虐待行为实施者与初次报告未被证实的虐待行为实施者的累犯率，以确定他们重返儿童福利系统的比率是否不同。
对4年半时间里全州范围内的儿童福利服务行政数据进行了分析。样本包括31531名家庭内虐待行为的实施者。对每种虐待类型（性虐待、身体虐待和忽视）分别进行了分析。
使用生存曲线分析了双变量关系（证实状态和累犯），研究发现累犯模式因虐待类型和指数事件时的证实状态而异。使用Cox比例风险模型进行的多变量分析发现，即使在控制邻里平均收入、种族和性别后，双变量关系仍然成立。
该研究的发现表明，初次报告未被证实的实施者以高比率重返儿童福利系统，这表明有必要了解如何甄别那些最有可能再次犯罪的未被证实的涉嫌实施者。频繁的跨类型累犯的发现表明，干预应侧重于不同虐待类型的共同主题。
