Drake Brett, Jonson-Reid Melissa, Way Ineke, Chung Sulki
George Warren Brown School of Social Work, Washington University, St. Louis, USA.
Child Maltreat. 2003 Nov;8(4):248-60. doi: 10.1177/1077559503258930.
This article reports rates of recidivism among initially substantiated and initially unsubstantiated child maltreatment events to determine if substantiation status is associated with higher risk of recidivism. This is an important question given recent concerns that unsubstantiated cases may have as high or almost as high a risk of recidivism as do substantiated cases. The data are analyzed at both the victim level and the case level, divided by type of maltreatment, and followed for 4.5 years. The data used are administrative and combine a series of state databases with census data. Analyses are performed at the bivariate and multivariate (Cox proportional hazards model) levels. The main finding is that unsubstantiated cases are at high risk for recidivism, in many cases as high a risk as substantiated cases. Implications for practice, policy, and research are presented with a focus on the importance of providing preventative services to unsubstantiated cases.
本文报告了最初得到证实和最初未得到证实的儿童虐待事件的再犯率，以确定证实状态是否与更高的再犯风险相关。鉴于最近有人担心未得到证实的案件可能与得到证实的案件有同样高或几乎同样高的再犯风险，这是一个重要问题。数据在受害者层面和案件层面进行分析，按虐待类型划分，并跟踪4.5年。所使用的数据是行政数据，将一系列州数据库与人口普查数据相结合。分析在双变量和多变量（Cox比例风险模型）层面进行。主要发现是，未得到证实的案件有很高的再犯风险，在许多情况下与得到证实的案件风险一样高。本文还阐述了对实践、政策和研究的启示，重点是为未得到证实的案件提供预防服务的重要性。
