Forest Chris E, Stone Peter H, Sokolov Andrei P, Allen Myles R, Webster Mort D
Joint Program on the Science Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
Science. 2002 Jan 4;295(5552):113-7. doi: 10.1126/science.1064419.
We derive joint probability density distributions for three key uncertain properties of the climate system, using an optimal fingerprinting approach to compare simulations of an intermediate complexity climate model with three distinct diagnostics of recent climate observations. On the basis of the marginal probability distributions, the 5 to 95% confidence intervals are 1.4 to 7.7 kelvin for climate sensitivity and -0.30 to -0.95 watt per square meter for the net aerosol forcing. The oceanic heat uptake is not well constrained, but ocean temperature observations do help to constrain climate sensitivity. The uncertainty in the net aerosol forcing is much smaller than the uncertainty range for the indirect aerosol forcing alone given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report.
我们使用一种最优指纹识别方法，推导了气候系统三个关键不确定属性的联合概率密度分布，以将一个中等复杂度气候模型的模拟结果与近期气候观测的三种不同诊断结果进行比较。基于边际概率分布，气候敏感度的5%至95%置信区间为1.4至7.7开尔文，净气溶胶强迫为-0.30至-0.95瓦每平方米。海洋热吸收的约束条件不佳，但海洋温度观测确实有助于约束气候敏感度。净气溶胶强迫的不确定性远小于政府间气候变化专门委员会第三次评估报告中给出的仅间接气溶胶强迫的不确定性范围。
