Ambrosch F, Wiedermann G
Immun Infekt. 1975 Feb;3(1):24-31.
The effect, hazards and risk of vaccinations may be calculated by means of special formulas which determine the value for N, Q and D. The formula for N considers the question whether a vaccination is effective, necessary and valuable and may be recommended on epidemiological grounds. Q considers the individual risk (i. e. relation between total risk of unvaccinated and vaccinated persons) and D the yearly difference in risks between unvaccinated and vaccinated members of a community. If p stands for protection rate of a vaccination, t = time for which the vaccination effect is lasting, R = complications of disease under study in a community in which vaccinations against this disease are not in use and r = comparable complications of vaccination, the following formulas are applicable: (see article) A vaccination may be recommended if N and Q greater than 1 and the value for D is positiv. Application of these formulas to special vaccinations lead to the following conclusions: In case of BCG, measles and poliomyelitis (oral vaccination) the above mentioned values exceed at least 10(1)-10(2) (N), 4-5 (Q) or are highly positiv (D). These vaccinations-if performed correctly-are considered valuable and highly recommendable. Vaccination against pertussis is not recommendable beyond the second year of life. According to the present epidemiologic situation in Austria this vaccination is still rectified in children under 2 years. However, values for N, Q and D are near border-line and should be yearly evaluated. Smallpox vaccination in Europe is still recommendable. Similarly, continuous reevaluations are necessary due to low values of N, Q and D. On the other hand, vaccination against tetanus is available and vaccination against influenza may be recommended.
疫苗接种的效果、危害和风险可以通过特殊公式来计算，这些公式可以确定N、Q和D的值。N的公式考虑了疫苗接种是否有效、必要和有价值，并且可以基于流行病学依据进行推荐。Q考虑个体风险（即未接种疫苗者和接种疫苗者的总风险之间的关系），而D考虑社区中未接种疫苗者和接种疫苗者每年的风险差异。如果p代表疫苗接种的保护率，t =疫苗接种效果持续的时间，R =在未进行针对该疾病的疫苗接种的社区中所研究疾病的并发症，r =疫苗接种的可比并发症，则适用以下公式：（见文章）如果N和Q大于1且D值为正，则可以推荐进行疫苗接种。将这些公式应用于特殊疫苗接种会得出以下结论：对于卡介苗、麻疹和脊髓灰质炎（口服疫苗），上述值至少超过10(1)-10(2)（N）、4-5（Q）或为高度正值（D）。这些疫苗接种——如果操作正确——被认为是有价值的且非常值得推荐。百日咳疫苗接种在两岁以后不建议使用。根据奥地利目前的流行病学情况，这种疫苗接种在2岁以下儿童中仍在进行。然而，N、Q和D的值接近临界值，应该每年进行评估。欧洲的天花疫苗接种仍然是值得推荐的。同样，由于N、Q和D的值较低，需要持续重新评估。另一方面，破伤风疫苗接种是可行的，流感疫苗接种也可以推荐。
