Probabilistic emission and immission modelling: case-study of the combined sewer-WWTP-receiving water system at Dessel (Belgium).

The impact of the combined urban drainage and WWTP system of the village of Dessel (Belgium) on the Witte Nete receiving water is modelled both in terms of emissions and immissions. The hydrodynamic and water quality modelling is performed both in a deterministic and probabilistic way. For the deterministic modelling, detailed physically based and simplified conceptual models are used in a complementary way. In the probabilistic modelling, the different uncertainties in the deterministic model are classified in input uncertainties, parameter uncertainties and model-structure uncertainties. The probabilistic simulation results can be used in risk analysis and management, for the determination of the major uncertainty-sources and priorities in model improvement, for model bias elimination and for efficient model calibration.