Breivik Knut, Wania Frank
NILU Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller.
Environ Sci Technol. 2002 Mar 1;36(5):1014-23. doi: 10.1021/es001971h.
The POPCYCLING-Baltic model, a non-steady-state multicompartmental mass balance model of long-term chemical fate in the Baltic Sea environment, is evaluated for its capability to simulate the behavior of alpha- and gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane isomers from 1970 to 2000. The model predicts HCH concentrations in air, seawater, marine sediments, and needles well within an order of magnitude, often within a factor of 2, and reproduces major features of the observed differences in space and time. The spatial and temporal patterns of HCHs in the Baltic Sea environment are found to be controlled mostly by chemical input, both through direct emissions within the drainage basin and through advective inflow from adjacent areas, but variable environmental conditions can significantly modify the spatial distribution patterns. Simulations with different boundary conditions, i.e., variable assumptions concerning advective atmospheric inflow, suggest that sources within the drainage basin alone are not capable of explaining the observed HCH levels and that significant transport into the region must occur. Deviations between predicted and measured HCH concentrations can often be explained by uncertain estimates of usage and advective import, illustrating the usefulness of the model for evaluating the reasonability of emission estimates and boundary conditions.
波罗的海多介质循环模型（POPCYCLING-Baltic model）是一种用于模拟波罗的海环境中长期化学物质归宿的非稳态多隔室质量平衡模型，该模型被评估了模拟1970年至2000年期间α-和γ-六氯环己烷异构体行为的能力。该模型预测的空气、海水、海洋沉积物和针叶中的六氯环己烷浓度误差在一个数量级以内，通常在两倍以内，并再现了观测到的时空差异的主要特征。研究发现，波罗的海环境中六氯环己烷的时空分布模式主要受化学物质输入的控制，包括流域内的直接排放以及相邻区域的平流流入，但环境条件的变化会显著改变空间分布模式。采用不同边界条件（即关于大气平流流入的不同假设）进行的模拟表明，仅流域内的源无法解释观测到的六氯环己烷水平，该区域必定存在大量的物质输入。预测的和实测的六氯环己烷浓度之间的偏差通常可以通过使用量和平流输入的不确定估计来解释，这说明了该模型在评估排放估计和边界条件合理性方面的有用性。
