Werneck Guilherme L, Costa Carlos H N, Walker Alexander M, David John R, Wand Matthew, Maguire James H
Department of Immunology and Infectious Disease, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Epidemiology. 2002 May;13(3):364-7. doi: 10.1097/00001648-200205000-00020.
The pattern of spread of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazilian cities is poorly understood.
We used geographic information systems and spatial statistics to evaluate the distribution of 1061 cases of visceral leishmaniasis in Teresina, Brazil, in 1993 through 1996.
A locally weighted (LOESS) regression model, which was fit as a smoothed function of spatial coordinates, demonstrated large-scale variation, with high incidence rates in peripheral neighborhoods that bordered forest land and pastures. Moran's I indicated small-scale variation and clustering up to 300 m, roughly the flight range of the sand fly vector.
Spatial analytical techniques can identify high-risk areas for targeting control interventions.
内脏利什曼病在巴西城市中的传播模式尚不清楚。
我们使用地理信息系统和空间统计方法来评估1993年至1996年巴西特雷西纳市1061例内脏利什曼病的分布情况。
局部加权（LOESS）回归模型作为空间坐标的平滑函数进行拟合，显示出大规模的变化，与林地和牧场接壤的周边社区发病率较高。莫兰指数（Moran's I）表明存在小规模变化以及距离达300米（大致为白蛉传播媒介的飞行范围）的聚集现象。
空间分析技术可以识别高风险区域，以便针对性地采取控制干预措施。
