Kribs-Zaleta Christopher M, Martcheva Maia
Department of Mathematics, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019, USA.
Math Biosci. 2002 May-Jun;177-178:317-32. doi: 10.1016/s0025-5564(01)00099-2.
We consider models for a disease with acute and chronic infective stages, and variable infectivity and recovery rates, within the context of a vaccination campaign. Models for SIRS and SIS disease cycles exhibit backward bifurcations under certain conditions, which complicate the criteria for success of the vaccination campaign by making it possible to have stable endemic states when R(0)<1. We also show the extent to which the forms of the infectivity and recovery functions affect the possibility of backward bifurcations. SIR and SI models examined do not exhibit this behavior.
我们在疫苗接种运动的背景下，考虑一种具有急性和慢性感染阶段、可变传染性和恢复率的疾病模型。SIRS和SIS疾病周期模型在某些条件下会出现反向分岔，这使得在R(0)<1时可能存在稳定的地方病状态，从而使疫苗接种运动成功的标准变得复杂。我们还展示了传染性和恢复函数的形式在多大程度上影响反向分岔的可能性。所研究的SIR和SI模型没有表现出这种行为。
