Ball Frank G, Lyne Owen D
School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK.
Math Biosci. 2002 May-Jun;177-178:333-54. doi: 10.1016/s0025-5564(01)00095-5.
This paper considers stochastic epidemics among a population partitioned into households, with mixing locally within households and globally throughout the population. The two levels of mixing have important implications for the threshold behaviour of the epidemic and consequently for the form and construction of optimal vaccination policies. Optimality is considered in terms of the cost of the vaccination program, the form of which is general enough to include costs of the vaccine itself, its administration, travel to and/or contact with the households. New explicit results are obtained by a constructive method which explain the form of optimal vaccination policies. Numerical studies are presented which exemplify the results discussed.
本文考虑了在一个划分为家庭的人群中的随机流行病,其中在家庭内部存在局部混合,在整个人口中存在全局混合。这两种混合水平对流行病的阈值行为具有重要影响,进而对最优疫苗接种策略的形式和构建产生影响。从疫苗接种计划的成本角度考虑最优性,其形式具有足够的通用性,可包括疫苗本身的成本、其接种成本、前往家庭和/或与家庭接触的成本。通过一种建设性方法获得了新的明确结果,这些结果解释了最优疫苗接种策略的形式。还给出了数值研究,例证了所讨论的结果。