Schinazi Rinaldo B
Department of Mathematics, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, Colorado 80933-7150, USA.
Theor Popul Biol. 2002 Mar;61(2):163-9. doi: 10.1006/tpbi.2001.1567.
We introduce a spatial stochastic model for the spread of tuberculosis and HIV. We have three parameters: the size of the social cluster for each individual and the infection rates within and outside the social cluster. We show that when the infection rate from outside the cluster is low (this is presumably the case for tuberculosis and HIV) then an epidemic is possible only if the typical social cluster and the within infection rate are large enough. These results may be important in formulating new hypotheses for the transmission of TB and HIV.
我们引入了一个用于结核病和艾滋病病毒传播的空间随机模型。我们有三个参数：每个个体的社会群体规模以及社会群体内部和外部的感染率。我们表明，当群体外部的感染率较低时（结核病和艾滋病病毒可能就是这种情况），那么只有当典型的社会群体和群体内部感染率足够大时，才有可能发生疫情。这些结果对于制定结核病和艾滋病病毒传播的新假设可能很重要。
