McLaughlin John F, Hellmann Jessica J, Boggs Carol L, Ehrlich Paul R
Department of Environmental Sciences, Huxley College of the Environment, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9181, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Apr 30;99(9):6070-4. doi: 10.1073/pnas.052131199. Epub 2002 Apr 23.
Climate change is expected to alter the distribution and abundance of many species. Predictions of climate-induced population extinctions are supported by geographic range shifts that correspond to climatic warming, but few extinctions have been linked mechanistically to climate change. Here we show that extinctions of two populations of a checkerspot butterfly were hastened by increasing variability in precipitation, a phenomenon predicted by global climate models. We model checkerspot populations to show that changes in precipitation amplified population fluctuations, leading to rapid extinctions. As populations of checkerspots and other species become further isolated by habitat loss, climate change is likely to cause more extinctions, threatening both species diversity and critical ecosystem services.
气候变化预计会改变许多物种的分布和数量。与气候变暖相对应的地理范围变化支持了因气候导致种群灭绝的预测，但很少有灭绝事件在机制上与气候变化相关联。在此，我们表明，降水变率增加加速了两种花斑蝶种群的灭绝，这是全球气候模型所预测的一种现象。我们对花斑蝶种群进行建模，以显示降水变化放大了种群波动，导致迅速灭绝。随着花斑蝶和其他物种的种群因栖息地丧失而进一步隔离，气候变化很可能导致更多物种灭绝，威胁物种多样性和关键的生态系统服务。
