下莱茵省的宫颈癌：2014年发病率趋势及预测

[Cervical cancer in Bas-Rhin: trend and prediction of the incidence in 2014].

作者信息

Eilstein D, Hédelin G, Schaffer P

机构信息

Laboratoire d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Faculté de Médecine de Strasbourg, 11, rue Humann, 67000 Strasbourg.

出版信息

J Gynecol Obstet Biol Reprod (Paris). 2002 Feb;31(1):28-33.

PMID:11976574

Abstract

BACKGROUND

In the world, the cervix cancer is the second commonest cancer in women. Its incidence is decreasing but it is still too frequent. The aim of this study was to predict the incidence of cervix cancer among women in the Department of Bas-Rhin.

METHODS

Incidence data were provided by the Bas-Rhin Tumor Registry. The incidence of in situ tumors and invasive cancers was predicted in 2010-2014 by using an age - period - cohort model and a Bayesian approach.

RESULTS

The incidence rates predicted by the model, standardized to the European population, were 99.7 per 10(5)population in 2000-2004 (CI 95%: [82.7-118.5]) and 177.1 per 10(5) population in 2010-2014 (CI 95%: [103.7-288.5]) for in situ and 13.0 per 10(5) population (CI 95%: [9.5-17.2]) in 2000-2004 and 11.1 per 10(5)population (CI 95%: [4.5-22.7]) in 2010-2014 for invasive tumors.

CONCLUSIONS

The decrease of invasive tumors is due to screening. The improvement of the quality of the screening and treatment of in situ tumors would allow the number of incident cases of cervix cancer to decrease.

摘要

背景

在全球范围内，宫颈癌是女性中第二常见的癌症。其发病率虽在下降，但仍较为频繁。本研究的目的是预测下莱茵省女性宫颈癌的发病率。

方法

发病率数据由下莱茵肿瘤登记处提供。使用年龄-时期-队列模型和贝叶斯方法预测2010 - 2014年原位肿瘤和浸润性癌的发病率。

结果

该模型预测的发病率，经欧洲人群标准化后，2000 - 2004年原位癌发病率为每10⁵人口99.7例（95%置信区间：[82.7 - 118.5]），2010 - 2014年为每10⁵人口177.1例（95%置信区间：[103.7 - 288.5]）；2000 - 2004年浸润性肿瘤发病率为每10⁵人口13.0例（95%置信区间：[9.5 - 17.2]），2010 - 2014年为每10⁵人口11.1例（95%置信区间：[4.5 - 22.7]）。