Webb Glenn F, Blaser Martin J
Department of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37235, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 May 14;99(10):7027-32. doi: 10.1073/pnas.102691499.
A mathematical model is developed to analyze the transmission of inhalational anthrax through the postal system by cross-contamination of mail. The model consists of state vectors describing the numbers of cross-contaminated letters generated, the numbers of anthrax spores on these letters, the numbers of resulting infections in recipients, and matrices of transition probabilities acting on these vectors. The model simulates the recent outbreak in the United States, and provides a general framework to investigate the potential impact of possible future outbreaks.
开发了一个数学模型,用于分析吸入性炭疽通过邮件交叉污染在邮政系统中的传播情况。该模型由描述产生的交叉污染信件数量、这些信件上的炭疽孢子数量、收件人中由此产生的感染数量的状态向量以及作用于这些向量的转移概率矩阵组成。该模型模拟了美国最近的疫情爆发,并提供了一个通用框架来调查未来可能爆发疫情的潜在影响。