DiRusso Stephen M, Chahine A Alfred, Sullivan Thomas, Risucci Donald, Nealon Peter, Cuff Sara, Savino John, Slim Michel
Department of Surgery, New York Medical College and Westchester Medical Center, Valhalla, NY 10595, USA.
J Pediatr Surg. 2002 Jul;37(7):1098-104; discussion 1098-104. doi: 10.1053/jpsu.2002.33885.
BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: There is a paucity of outcome prediction models for injured children. Using the National Pediatric Trauma Registry (NPTR), the authors developed an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict pediatric trauma death and compared it with logistic regression (LR). METHODS: Patients in the NPTR from 1996 through 1999 were included. Models were generated using LR and ANN. A data search engine was used to generate the ANN with the best fit for the data. Input variables included anatomic and physiologic characteristics. There was a single output variable: probability of death. Assessment of the models was for both discrimination (ROC area under the curve) and calibration (Lemeshow-Hosmer C-Statistic). RESULTS: There were 35,385 patients. The average age was 8.1 +/- 5.1 years, and there were 1,047 deaths (3.0%). Both modeling systems gave excellent discrimination (ROC A(z): LR = 0.964, ANN = 0.961). However, LR had only fair calibration, whereas the ANN model had excellent calibration (L/H C stat: LR = 36, ANN = 10.5). CONCLUSIONS: The authors were able to develop an ANN model for the prediction of pediatric trauma death, which yielded excellent discrimination and calibration exceeding that of logistic regression. This model can be used by trauma centers to benchmark their performance in treating the pediatric trauma population.
背景/目的:针对受伤儿童的预后预测模型较少。作者利用国家儿科创伤登记系统(NPTR)开发了一种人工神经网络(ANN)来预测儿科创伤死亡情况,并将其与逻辑回归(LR)进行比较。 方法:纳入1996年至1999年NPTR中的患者。使用LR和ANN生成模型。使用数据搜索引擎生成与数据拟合度最佳的ANN。输入变量包括解剖学和生理学特征。只有一个输出变量:死亡概率。对模型的评估包括区分度(曲线下面积的ROC)和校准度(Lemeshow-Hosmer C统计量)。 结果:共有35385例患者。平均年龄为8.1±5.1岁,有1047例死亡(3.0%)。两种建模系统都具有出色的区分度(ROC A(z):LR = 0.964,ANN = 0.961)。然而,LR的校准度一般,而ANN模型的校准度出色(L/H C统计量:LR = 36,ANN = 10.5)。 结论:作者能够开发出一种用于预测儿科创伤死亡的ANN模型,其区分度和校准度出色,超过了逻辑回归。该模型可供创伤中心用于衡量其在治疗儿科创伤患者方面的表现。
Surg Infect (Larchmt). 2010-7-28