Nunes Kevin L, Firestone Philip, Bradford John M, Greenberg David M, Broom Ian
School of Psychology, University of Ottawa, 120 University Private, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1N 6N5.
Sex Abuse. 2002 Jul;14(3):253-69. doi: 10.1177/107906320201400305.
The predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sex offenders, modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, was examined and compared in a sample of 258 adult male sex offenders. In addition, the independent contributions to the prediction of recidivism made by each instrument and by various phallometric indices were explored. Both instruments demonstrated moderate levels of predictive accuracy for sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism. They were not significantly different in terms of their predictive accuracy for sexual or violent recidivism, nor did they contribute independently to the prediction of sexual or violent recidivism. Of the phallometric indices examined, only the pedophile index added significantly to the prediction of sexual recidivism, but not violent recidivism, above the Static-99 alone.
在一个由258名成年男性性犯罪者组成的样本中,对两种性犯罪者风险评估工具(静态-99和性犯罪者风险评估指南的修改版本)的预测效度进行了检验和比较。此外,还探讨了每种工具以及各种阴茎测量指标对再犯预测的独立贡献。两种工具在性犯罪和暴力(包括性暴力)再犯的预测准确性方面均表现出中等水平。它们在性犯罪或暴力再犯的预测准确性方面没有显著差异,也没有对性犯罪或暴力再犯的预测做出独立贡献。在所检查的阴茎测量指标中,只有恋童癖指数在单独使用静态-99的基础上,对性犯罪再犯的预测有显著增加,但对暴力再犯的预测没有显著增加。