数学建模在英国2001年口蹄疫疫情防控中的作用。

The role of mathematical modelling in the control of the 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK.

作者信息

Kao Rowland R

机构信息

Dept of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, OX1 3PS, Oxford, UK.

出版信息

Trends Microbiol. 2002 Jun;10(6):279-86. doi: 10.1016/s0966-842x(02)02371-5.

DOI:10.1016/s0966-842x(02)02371-5

PMID:12088664

Abstract

Mathematical models played an important role in guiding the development of the control policies in the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK. The variety of approaches that helped to guide the policy can sometimes be confusing. Here, the different modelling exercises that were developed over the course of the epidemic are reviewed, describing the difficulties in interpreting the available data and the appropriateness of the various assumptions.

摘要

数学模型在指导2001年英国口蹄疫疫情防控政策的制定过程中发挥了重要作用。有助于指导该政策的方法多种多样，有时可能会令人困惑。在此，我们回顾了在疫情期间开展的不同建模活动，描述了在解释现有数据时遇到的困难以及各种假设的合理性。