Tildesley Michael J, Keeling Matt J
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.
Prev Vet Med. 2008 Jun 15;85(1-2):107-24. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.01.008. Epub 2008 Mar 6.
Whilst the UK 2001 FMD (foot-and-mouth disease) outbreak provides an extremely rich source of spatio-temporal epidemic data, it is not clear how the models and parameters from the UK can be translated to other scenarios. Here we consider how the model framework used to capture the UK epidemic can be applied to a hypothetical FMD outbreak in Denmark. Whilst pigs played a relatively minor role in the UK epidemic (being the infected animal on just 18 farms), they dominate the Danish livestock landscape. In addition, it is not clear whether transmission parameters from the UK will transfer to Denmark where farming practices may be significantly different. We therefore explore a large volume of high-dimensional parameter space, but seek to relate final epidemic size, risk of spread to Danish islands and potential success of control measures, to early indicators of epidemic dynamics. The results of this extensive modelling exercise therefore allow us to provide timely advice on control options based on the observed behaviours of the first few generations.
虽然英国2001年口蹄疫疫情提供了极为丰富的时空流行数据来源，但尚不清楚英国的模型和参数如何应用于其他情况。在此，我们考虑用于描述英国疫情的模型框架如何应用于丹麦假设的口蹄疫疫情。在英国疫情中，猪所起的作用相对较小（仅18个农场的猪被感染），但在丹麦的牲畜养殖中猪占主导地位。此外，尚不清楚英国的传播参数是否适用于丹麦，因为两国的养殖方式可能存在显著差异。因此，我们探索了大量的高维参数空间，但试图将最终疫情规模、疫情蔓延至丹麦岛屿的风险以及控制措施的潜在成效，与疫情动态的早期指标联系起来。因此，这次广泛建模工作的结果使我们能够根据最初几代的观察行为，及时提供有关控制方案的建议。
