Hunter P R, Syed Q
School of Medicine, Health Policy and Practice, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
Epidemiol Infect. 2002 Jun;128(3):433-8. doi: 10.1017/s0950268802006805.
We took the opportunity provided by a large outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in the North West of England to investigate the potential impact of recall bias on strength of association and on estimates of outbreak size. We conducted a community-based survey of 4 towns within the outbreak area and 4 control towns. A postal questionnaire was sent to 120 homes, chosen at random from the local telephone directory, in each of the 8 towns. Although not statistically significant, the prevalence of self-reported diarrhoeal disease was marginally higher in the control towns than in the outbreak towns. There was a very strong association between self-reported diarrhoea and drinking water consumption in both control and outbreak areas. The impact of recall bias in outbreak investigations is much greater than previously thought. Identification of the cause of outbreaks should not be based solely on case-control studies conducted after the press has reported the outbreak. Such evidence is likely to be unreliable and give falsely significant associations between water consumption and disease.
我们利用英格兰西北部隐孢子虫病大规模暴发提供的机会,调查回忆偏倚对关联强度和暴发规模估计的潜在影响。我们在暴发地区的4个城镇和4个对照城镇开展了一项基于社区的调查。向8个城镇中每个城镇从当地电话簿中随机选取的120户家庭发送了邮政问卷。尽管无统计学意义,但对照城镇自我报告的腹泻病患病率略高于暴发城镇。在对照地区和暴发地区,自我报告的腹泻与饮用水消费之间均存在非常强的关联。回忆偏倚在暴发调查中的影响比以前认为的要大得多。暴发原因的确定不应仅基于媒体报道暴发后进行的病例对照研究。此类证据可能不可靠,并会给出饮用水消费与疾病之间错误的显著关联。