Ramankutty Navin, Foley Jonathan A, Olejniczak Nicholas J
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin, 1225 West Dayton Street, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA.
Ambio. 2002 May;31(3):251-7.
This study reviews the major changes in global distribution of croplands during the 20th century. During the 20th century, the cropland base diminished greatly (from approximately 0.75 ha person-1 in 1900 to approximately 0.35 ha person-1 in 1990). This loss of croplands was not globally uniform: more than half the world's population, living in developing nations, lost nearly two-thirds of their per capita cropland base. The distribution of croplands has become increasingly skewed--in 1990, 80% of the population lived off less than 0.35 ha person-1. While agricultural yields have generally increased, they have barely kept pace with population growth in developing nations. Overall, the global food production system is becoming increasingly vulnerable to regional disruptions because of our increasing reliance on expensive technological options to increase agricultural production, or on global food trade.
本研究回顾了20世纪全球耕地分布的主要变化。在20世纪，耕地基数大幅减少（从1900年的约0.75公顷/人降至1990年的约0.35公顷/人）。这种耕地流失在全球并不均匀：生活在发展中国家的全球一半以上人口，人均耕地基数减少了近三分之二。耕地分布越来越不均衡——1990年，80%的人口依靠人均不足0.35公顷的耕地为生。虽然农业产量总体上有所增加，但在发展中国家，产量增长几乎跟不上人口增长的步伐。总体而言，由于我们越来越依赖昂贵的技术手段来增加农业产量或依赖全球粮食贸易，全球粮食生产系统正变得越来越容易受到区域干扰的影响。
