College of Social Sciences and Humanities, Koç University, Sarıyer/Istanbul, Turkey.
PLoS One. 2021 Apr 30;16(4):e0251091. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251091. eCollection 2021.
Agricultural land cover and its changing extent are directly related to human activities, which have an adverse impact on the environment and ecosystems. The historical knowledge of crop production and its cultivation area is a key element. Such data provide a base for monitoring and mapping spatio-temporal changes in agricultural land cover/use, which is of great significance to examine its impacts on environmental systems. Historical maps and related data obtained from historical archives can be effectively used for reconstruction purposes through using sample data from ground observations, government inventories, or other historical sources. This study considered historical population and cropland survey data obtained from Ottoman Archives and cropland suitability map, accessibility, and geophysical attributes as ancillary data to estimate non-irrigated crop production and its corresponding cultivation area in the 1840s Bursa Region, Turkey. We used the regression analysis approach to estimate agricultural land area and grain production for the unknown data points in the study region. We provide the spatial distribution of production and its cultivation area based on the estimates of regression models. The reconstruction can be used in line with future historical research aiming to model landscape, climate, and ecosystems to assess the impact of human activities on the environmental systems in preindustrial times in the Bursa Region context.
农业土地覆盖及其变化范围与人类活动直接相关，这些活动对环境和生态系统产生了不利影响。作物生产及其种植面积的历史知识是一个关键要素。这些数据为监测和绘制农业土地覆盖/利用的时空变化提供了基础，这对于考察其对环境系统的影响具有重要意义。可以通过利用地面观测、政府清单或其他历史来源的样本数据，从历史档案中获取历史地图和相关数据，并有效地将其用于重建目的。本研究利用从奥斯曼帝国档案馆获得的历史人口和耕地调查数据以及耕地适宜性图、可达性和地球物理属性等辅助数据，来估计 19 世纪 40 年代土耳其布尔萨地区的非灌溉作物产量及其相应的种植面积。我们使用回归分析方法来估计研究区域中未知数据点的农业土地面积和粮食产量。我们根据回归模型的估计提供了产量及其种植面积的空间分布。这种重建可以与未来旨在对景观、气候和生态系统建模的历史研究相结合，以评估人类活动对布尔萨地区前工业化时代环境系统的影响。
