Borsch-supan A
J Inst Theor Econ. 1992 Dec;148(4):533-57.
"The aging of the industrialized countries will dramatically strain their social security systems. In Germany, for example, 100 employed persons now support about 40 elderly, but 85 elderly will have to be sustained by the same number of employed persons in the year 2030. This pressure is exacerbated by the observed trend towards earlier retirement ages. This paper presents cross-national evidence and an option value analysis of the retirement decision to argue that the distortions created by the actuarially unfair design of the social security systems in the United States and particularly in Germany have significantly contributed in this trend." (SUMMARY IN GER)
工业化国家的老龄化将使其社会保障体系面临巨大压力。例如，在德国，目前100名就业人员供养约40名老年人，但到2030年，同样数量的就业人员将不得不供养85名老年人。提前退休年龄这一观察到的趋势加剧了这种压力。本文提供了跨国证据以及对退休决策的期权价值分析，以论证美国尤其是德国社会保障体系精算不公平设计所造成的扭曲在这一趋势中起到了重要作用。（德语总结）
