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老年男性的劳动力动态

Labor force dynamics of older men.

作者信息

Blau D M

出版信息

Econometrica. 1994 Jan;62(1):117-56.

Abstract

"This paper describes and analyzes movements of older men among labor force states [in the United States] using quarterly observations derived from the Retirement History Survey (RHS)." The results indicate "substantial undercounts in the biannual data, indicating that the prevalence of labor force movements at older ages has been underestimated previously.... The results show that labor force dynamics at older ages are important, including duration and spell occurrence dependence, and work experience effects. These effects are robust to nonparametric controls for unobserved heterogeneity. The estimates indicate that social security benefits have strong effects on the timing of labor force transitions at older ages, but that changes in social security benefit levels over time have not contributed much to the trend toward earlier labor force exit."

摘要

本文利用退休历史调查(RHS)得出的季度观测数据,描述并分析了[美国]老年男性在劳动力状态之间的流动情况。结果表明“半年期数据存在大量漏计情况,这表明此前对老年劳动力流动发生率的估计偏低……结果显示,老年劳动力动态变化很重要,包括持续时间和轮次发生依存性以及工作经验效应。这些效应对于未观测到的异质性的非参数控制具有稳健性。估计结果表明,社会保障福利对老年劳动力转型的时间安排有很强的影响,但随着时间推移社会保障福利水平的变化对劳动力提前退出趋势的影响不大。”

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