Thatcher A R
J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 1999;162(Pt. 1):5-43. doi: 10.1111/1467-985x.00119.
"Recent new data on old age mortality point to a particular model for the way in which the probability of dying increases with age. The model is found to fit not only modern data but also some widely spaced historical data for the 19th and 17th centuries, and even some estimates for the early mediaeval period. The results show a pattern which calls for explanation. The model can also be used to predict a probability distribution for the highest age which will be attained in given circumstances. The results are relevant to the current debate about whether there is a fixed upper limit to the length of human life." A discussion of the paper by several researchers and a reply by the author are included.
近期关于老年死亡率的新数据指出了一种死亡概率随年龄增长的特定模式。该模式不仅适用于现代数据，还适用于19世纪和17世纪一些间隔较大的历史数据，甚至适用于中世纪早期的一些估计数据。结果显示出一种需要解释的模式。该模型还可用于预测在特定情况下所能达到的最高年龄的概率分布。这些结果与当前关于人类寿命是否存在固定上限的辩论相关。文中包含了几位研究人员对该论文的讨论以及作者的回应。
